Do The Black Cats really have another life left? Defoe.

Well, last time out I had some concerns that City were looming on the horizon following an easy-ish run of opening fixtures for Everton.

The numbers underneath the draw with City, weren’t pretty (albeit with two pens chucked in). They suggest that a 3-0 drubbing would have been the most common result, and that even getting smashed for 5 would’ve been more likely than the MoM show that we got from Maarten Stekelenburg:

city-v-everton-yesterdayThe result turned out ok but it felt like the knife to a gun-fight kind of performance that David Moyes would have been criticised for and Roberto Martinez seemed incapable of organising.

Looking at the league table, it would appear that Wor Davie has been taking a water pistol to Sunderland’s gun-fights so far this season. The data, however, suggests that there are some signs of life still in the Black Cats despite them being run over 6 times in the last 8 weeks.

While sorting out my snazzy new interactive viz this week, I was interested in seeing which forwards were getting into the best and most regular positions to score from in open play. Jermain Defoe is smashing EVERYONE. On average, each of his chances has been 20-25% better than the other top forwards in the league.

The viz shows how the ball’s been delivered to him in and around the danger zone:

defoe-chances-receivedI decided to do an eye test and the model’s assertion seems reasonable. Defoe’s getting onto the end of a range of chances, coming from all sides. Until, now he’s only scored from one of them. The probability of it staying that way is low:


Meantime, I got short shrift from Spurs fans on twitter for my Hugo Lloris can’t keep this level of shot-stopping up comments. He is so far. Keep scoffing…it’s going to come down, kids.

Follow me on twitter @footballfactman

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