On the face of it, Burnley’s deep set defence should cause chance creation crocks Everton problems this afternoon. But I’m starting with a positive:
Burnley’s keepers Tom Heaton and Nick Pope have been massively overperforming so far this season. Burnley generally get bombarded by shots each week but their two shot stoppers have stood pretty firm. Below you’ll see the graphic showing all the possible outcomes of this according to my xG model. At some point, they’ll regress back to human levels:
Moving on to some concerns, then…
Ronald Koeman: “It is about giving the players options but we are scared to play forward. Sometimes there are not enough options for the forwards but in that case play the ball into the channels instead of the goalkeeper. We know the fans like us to go forward, not back, back, back. Then it is difficult to create chances.”
Ok, so I cut some tape from the first 4 minutes of the Bournemouth game last week. This is what it looked like:
Enjoy the game, people, whatever happens.